1 · Define the country
Annual health budget: . You allocate the portion reserved for new investments; existing services are represented in the starting regional capacity.
2 · Ask Before You Act
Select the questions you would investigate before planning a maternal health system reform.
3 · Build the regional health system
Select a region, then invest in its service levels and workforceCosts: Level 1 PHC centre $2M/year · Level 2 hospital $12M/year · Level 3 hospital $30M/year · midwife team $0.5M/year · referral network $3M/year. All are illustrative annual operating-equivalent costs. The model does not yet verify specialty workforce, case mix, catchment populations or real tertiary referral flows. Investments persist through the selected simulation horizon. Removing an existing service is assumed to release its illustrative annual operating cost, but may reduce access and resilience; real-world closure costs, staff redeployment, and political constraints are not modeled.
4 · Scenario Comparison Lab
No scenarios saved yet. Set up a strategy in Sections 3 and 6, then save it here.
| Saved strategy | Horizon | Annual investment | Access | Equity gap | Actions |
|---|
Comparison indicators are illustrative teaching outputs, not epidemiological forecasts. All scenarios are compared using the same country baseline and time horizon; the simulation will warn if baseline inputs have changed.
5 · Results Dashboard
Illustrative additional annual programme costs: immunization outreach $3M, screening expansion $4M. They are constrained by the same investment ceiling. Coverage gains are hypothetical, not empirically calibrated.
Press Run Integrated Simulation to calculate the annual pathway.
| Year | Annual cost | Weighted access | Equity gap | Immunization coverage | Screening coverage | Lagged prevention signal* |
|---|
*Lagged prevention signal is an illustrative implementation/benefit-readiness index (0–100), not avoided cases, mortality reduction or cost savings. Screening and immunization have different disease-specific lag structures; these must be calibrated separately.
Regional results
| Region | Baseline | Planned | Need-adjusted access |
|---|
What changed — and why?
6 · NCD prevention, governance & pandemic resilience
Select multiple interventions. The four disease-group pathways respond to shared risk factors, dedicated care programmes, and tobacco policy governance. Outputs are synthetic programme-readiness and exposure indices, not projected disease cases or deaths.
Shared modifiable risk factors
Four major NCD groups
Select specific instruments for each risk factor. Each has its own adoption, implementation and enforcement settings. Policies influence the synthetic risk pathway only when the corresponding risk-factor programme above is selected. All costs are illustrative annual USD millions.
| Governance component | What it means in the simulation |
|---|---|
| Adoption | Legal/policy commitment; cannot deliver full impact without implementation |
| Implementation | Operational delivery, staff, systems and programme execution |
| Enforcement | Compliance and regulatory follow-through |
| Coordination | Small illustrative improvement to delivery; requires funding |
All programme and governance costs are annual USD millions, illustrative, and count toward the same 8% investment ceiling. Interventions take effect gradually; during a pandemic, disrupted essential services slow clinical programme delivery.
| Year | Shared risk reduction index | CVD readiness | Cancer readiness | Respiratory readiness | Diabetes readiness | Essential care continuity |
|---|
Why did results change?
Choose a combination of risk-factor policies and disease-group programmes.
6B · Disease-specific programmes & pandemic response
Plan hypertension, diabetes, cancer screening and tobacco prevention alongside a COVID-like respiratory pandemic. This is a transparent illustrative systems-thinking exercise, not a validated epidemiological forecast.
Choose a disease or prevention programme
Select a programme, edit its starting conditions, and enable its intervention. You may enable several programmes by switching between them; selections are retained.
Hypertension — detection and control
Type 2 diabetes — detection and follow-up
Cervical cancer — screening and follow-up
Breast cancer — screening and diagnostics
Tobacco prevention and cessation
The model tracks a synthetic policy implementation index, not tobacco prevalence or attributable mortality.
Selected: Hypertension
Results are illustrative programme coverage trajectories, not predictions of incidence, mortality or cost-effectiveness.
Unexpected respiratory pandemic
Run the simulation to reveal the emergency year and consequences.
| Year | Event | HTN screening | HTN control | Essential care continuity | Hospital pressure index | Annual emergency cost |
|---|
Selected disease: annual results
Choose a disease and click Run selected disease simulation.
| Year | Programme indicator | Essential care continuity | Event |
|---|
Multi-disease NCD programme results
| Year | Diabetes screening | Cervical screening | Breast screening | Tobacco policy implementation* | Continuity |
|---|
*Tobacco policy implementation is a synthetic 0–100 index, not smoking prevalence. Cancer screening coverage is not cancer incidence or mortality. Programmes may experience disruption during the pandemic.
Explain the trade-offs
Hospital pressure is a synthetic index, not hospital occupancy. Hypertension control is a hypothetical programme indicator, not an estimate of avoided strokes, deaths, QALYs or cost savings. Recovery may extend beyond the shock year.
Scenario interpretation & policy reflection
Levels of care — your investment strategy
Health equity — your regional trade-offs
Policy reflection
Scientific note: HealthSim is an educational simulation using illustrative assumptions and synthetic indicators. Results are not validated clinical, epidemiological or economic forecasts and should not be used for policy decisions without empirical calibration and validation.